By: Simon Speakman Cordall

This piece was originally published on the thearabweekly website https://thearabweekly.com/

TUNIS – As predominantly young demonstrators have taken to the streets across Lebanon calling for an end to the country’s confessional system of government in which posts and ministries are divided along sectarian lines, the sense of identity that has underpinned Hezbollah and its ally Amal’s rise has come under repeated attack.

The cross-sectarian nature of the protests took many among Lebanon’s ruling elite, more accustomed to attributing blame across confessional lines than defending the system of government, by surprise. Protesters from all sects — Sunni, Druze, Shia and Christian — have rebelled against a political elite they see as having enriched itself at the country’s cost.

For Hezbollah, which has relied on an ingrained sense of Shia identity, the problems are acute. Responding to the groundswell of popular discontent, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah appeared to open the door to corruption investigations while maintaining his defence of the political status quo and particularly the group’s allies within the Shia Amal Movement.

Speaking to the Daily Beast, a Hezbollah member who fought in Syria in support of Syrian President Bashar Assad said the challenges of defending the movement and denying the demands of protesters were manifest.

“Am I a member of Hezbollah against the Israelis? Yes, I am,” the fighter, identified as Abu Hussein, said. “Am I a member of Hezbollah when it’s against the people in the streets? No!”

“The protesters’ demands are 100% legitimate and they have no other choice to get their demands met,” he told the Daily Beast, suggesting that an increasing number of fighters held similar views.

“Hezbollah built itself up into a formidable power in large part by portraying itself as a defender of the Lebanese people against Israel,” said Thomas Abi-Hanna, a security analyst with the risk consultancy Stratfor. “The group’s sole focus was defending Lebanon. Hezbollah’s activities in Syria, in which it fought to defend the Syrian government of Bashar Assad, undermined that image in the eyes of some Lebanese.”

Since its foundation, Iran has played a pivotal role in Hezbollah’s development, providing arms to the group through Syria and overseeing its deployment in that conflict. As in other countries across the region, that influence is being challenged. “Iran is watching the events with great interest. However, Lebanese protests are likely the third-most important protest movement to Iran, which also faces problems closer to home including massive protests within its own borders as well as large scale protests in neighbouring Iraq,” Abi-Hanna said. 

However, predictions that the protests might inflict long-term damage to Hezbollah’s support in Lebanon appear flawed. 
“There has been a lot of speculation recently about the level of control Hezbollah and Amal maintain over Shias given the multiple demonstrations that happened in places considered as the stronghold of these two parties,” said Elie Abouaoun, director of the MENA programme at the US Institute of Peace.

“Undeniably, a number of both parties’ supporters went on the streets and complained about the lack of services and economic opportunities. However, this uprising in the parties’ fiefs is more about the economic and social conditions than it is about the political options of these parties.”

Abouaoun said that, after decades of political exclusion, many Lebanese Shias hold that Hezbollah remains the only route to political representation and protection.

“While this might shift to become less of a priority in the context of acute economic and social hardship,” he said, “it does not disappear completely and will re-emerge when relevant. So, in a nutshell, this erosion is easily reversible unless a miracle happens, i.e. building a political system and state institutions that would dismiss their concern.”

It has been suggested that the extent to which Hezbollah would be open to corruption investigations may be limited. While accusations against Hezbollah officials have been limited, those against their allies are widespread.

“Hezbollah’s main allies in Lebanon, starting with Amal, are heavily involved in corruption. Therefore, going after (corruption) will lead to a sharp divide between Shias, which is the last thing Hezbollah would want now,” Abouaoun said.

“Fighting corruption will involve as well targeting key figures in another heavyweight ally, the Free Patriotic Movement, some of which are also involved in malpractices and abuse of power.”

Hezbollah’s position cannot be assured. “Even within its own ranks and despite a strict discipline there have been more than one case of corruption reported. There is no doubt that this is only the emerging part of the iceberg and that a serious investigation will disclose more about the involvement of key figures in Hezbollah in corruption,” Abouaoun said.

This piece was originally published on the thearabweekly website https://www.thearabweekly.com/

UN representatives recently delved into the tumultuous politics of Iraq and Lebanon, searching for a peaceful solution to the showdowns between protesters and authorities.

In Iraq, mediation is spearheaded by Jeanine Antoinette Hennis-Plasschaert, special representative of the UN secretary-general of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), based on UN Security Council resolutions.

In Lebanon, the effort is led by Jan Kubis, a former Slovak Foreign Affairs minister and UN special coordinator for Lebanon.

Elie Abouaoun, director of the MENA programme at the US Institute of Peace, noted the difference between the Iraqi and Lebanese situations.

UN agencies in Lebanon, he said, “don’t have a special mandate decided by a [UN Security Council resolution] as is the case in Iraq. This means that their ‘political’ mandate is restricted and should only be confined to coordination,” he said.

The United Nations’ plan for Iraq included ending violence, anti-corruption measures and electoral reform by the end of November. It provided for constitutional amendments and legislative initiatives on infrastructure within three months.

Considering the impatience of protesters and their distrust of the ruling elite, Hennis-Plasschaert pressed Iraqi authorities to “step up to the plate and make things happen.”

“They are elected by the people. They are accountable to them,” she said.

She discussed the plan with Iraqi legislators November 13, saying: “Now is the time to act, otherwise any momentum will be lost — lost at a time when many, many Iraqis demand concrete results.”

“Something that very few people know is that actually the UN SRSG [special representative of the secretary-general] visited the sit-in because she wanted to convince them to give the [prime minister] a grace period of six months if he commits to a serious and feasible reform agenda,” Abouaoun said.

The UN mediation seemed welcomed by the Iraqi protesters. Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported demonstrators were “bolstered” by the meeting November 11 between her and Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s top Shia cleric.

“We’re optimistic about the UN and I respect her visit to Sistani,” Ali Kadhem, 33, a demonstrator at the main Baghdad protest site of Tahrir Square, told AFP. “Let them intervene more in Iraq. We want them here. Our people were starved, killed. We’ve been through everything.”

Abouaoun explained that “from the Iraqi public opinion stance, the UNAMI still enjoys relatively wide support. Obviously, the current steep political polarisation affects how some segments of the population perceive the UN but I don’t see their approval rate among Iraqis as plummeting.”

There were questions about the apparent convergence of the United Nations’ effort with the Iran-backed official Iraqi position to work with Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi.

After considering removing Abdul-Mahdi, the political leadership of Iraq, including President Barham Salih, voiced support for the prime minister.

The official Iraqi stance was reportedly cemented during meetings in Baghdad that involved Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ al-Quds Force. Following that consensus, the US call for early elections seemed to fall by the wayside. A political compromise could be a full reshuffle of the cabinet with Abdul-Mahdi staying as prime minister.

“Both the US and the UN are on the same page when it comes to considering the current PM as the ‘best option for the moment’ and both are trying to avoid creating a power vacuum that Iran is likely to use,” Abouaoun said.

“It is noteworthy that, within the same week, the US issued a statement supporting the efforts of the UN [and] the SRSG was received by Sistani personally, a rare occurrence/honour with foreign officials who usually meet his representatives, and the Iranians brokered a deal between Shia political parties to give the PM a grace period of 6-12 months with some reform initiatives on track.”

For foreign parties involved, Abdul-Mahdi is considered “the best option” because “he is politically weak, which allows each of the parties to implement their own agenda without much resistance from the PM,” Abouaoun said.

The risk of interference from outsiders, such as Iran, remains on mediators’ minds, however. Hennis-Plasschaert told AFP that she did not seek to be a counterweight to Iranian influence but said she feared “spoilers” could prevent progress.

“This country, unfortunately, knows many actors, external, internal, that could act as spoilers (and) undermine the legitimate demands of the people,” she said.

In Lebanon, Kubis called for the urgent formation of a cabinet including people known “for their competence and integrity” and who would be “trusted by the people. He said such a government would be in “a better position to appeal for support from Lebanon’s international partners.”

International goodwill is crucial for Lebanon, where reform could help release $11 billion in aid pledged at a conference last year.

The economic crisis loomed large in the UN coordinator’s efforts. “The financial and economic situation is critical and the government and other authorities cannot wait any longer to start addressing it,” he said after a November 12 meeting with Lebanese President Michel Aoun.

The formation of the new government is one of the most contentious issues in Lebanon. No party has as much at stake in continuing the status quo as Hezbollah, the Shia militant party holding many of the political cards.

While protesters clamoured for a technocratic government, Aoun pleaded in a November 12 interview for the inclusion of politicians in any future cabinet. He did not deny there was pressure from foreign countries to exclude his Hezbollah allies from the new government.

However, he said: “They can’t force me to get rid of a party that represents at least one-third of Lebanese.”

While protests in both Iraq and Lebanon are calling for the removal of the entire ruling class, UN mediators seem to be focusing on preventing the two countries from descending further into violence and chaos.

“My own reading is that we entered a phase of chaos in both countries that needs to be shortened to the extent possible so a concerted effort by the international community — with and through — the UN is more than welcome,” Abouaoun said.