The prospect of wresting the last territorial strongholds from the self-styled Islamic State extremist group—within weeks in Iraq and possibly within months in Syria—lends urgency to the question of how to address the lingering swirl of internal, regional and global conflicts. In a discussion today on Facebook Live, USIP Middle East and North Africa Director Elie Abouaoun, Distinguished Scholar Robin Wright and Senior Policy Scholar Mona Yacoubian explored the multiple factors that will continue to keep the region off balance without comprehensive efforts tailored to conditions on the ground.
“The ideology will not go away,” Abouaoun said. “What we know from our field observation is the radicalization and the ideology is increasing – in Iraq and Syria but also in other places. So what we need to do is think about how to address the drivers of this radicalization.”
They vary from one place to another depending on political grievances, social and economic exclusion, lack of education and religious discourse, among other factors, he said.
Wright noted that the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, at its peak held territory in each country about the size of the U.S. state of Indiana or the country of Jordan.
“The grave danger, of course, is that, if there isn’t the kind of policy in place, the solutions developed by both countries … that we could beat ISIS but still lose the war, still not make the peace,” Wright said.
The U.S. State Department, the U.S. Agency for International Development and other international agencies and organizations can help Iraq and Syria recover security, basic services and governance, Yacoubian said.
“In the absence of those things, you really create fertile ground for a re-emergence of ISIS 2.0,” she said.